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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Retail sales hint consumer demand improving


By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales excluding auto purchases rose for a second month in September, raising cautious optimism consumer spending could support the economy's fledgling recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.
A Commerce Department report on Wednesday showed non-auto sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent last month, building on the 1 percent gain reported in August and beating economists' expectations for a 0.2 percent increase.
The data cemented views the economy started growing again in the July-September period after four quarters of decline, even though overall retail sales slumped 1.5 percent as car-buying incentives expired.
"There's solidity, or new strength, in all discretionary spending categories," said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York. "We evidently have hit the bedrock level of consumer spending and can even see a little bit of normalcy going forward."
U.S. stocks were on a firm footing with some help from the retail sales report and forecast-beating earnings from Intel Corp, the world's largest chipmaker, and No. 2 U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase & Co. For details, see.
An unexpectedly big drop in U.S. business inventories in August raised the risk, however, that the economy's third-quarter rebound might miss forecasts for a growth pace above 3 percent.
Business inventories fell 1.5 percent in August, the biggest drop since December, the Commerce Department said. Wall Street economists had looked for only a 0.9 percent decline.
There were also signs of economic healing in Europe. Euro zone industrial output accelerated month-on-month in August and July production was revised upwards, providing evidence the area's economy probably started growing in the third quarter.
CONSUMER SPENDING IMPROVING
U.S. car sales tumbled 10.4 percent last month, the largest fall since August 2005, as the government's popular "cash for clunkers" program ended. The program, which gave consumers cash to trade in aging gas-guzzlers for new fuel-efficient cars, had helped push sales up 7.8 percent in August.
Elsewhere, however, there were solid sales gains across almost all categories in September. Sales were probably supported by back-to-school buying, as well as the best furniture and home furnishings sales since January 2007.
"Underlying consumer demand is a lot stronger than what some people think. Typically the back-to-school is a good predictor for holiday sales," said John Canally, economist at LPL Financial in Boston.

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